Haley’s voters might decide Biden’s fate in November. Here’s why.

 

As the South Carolina Republican primary approaches, the evidence is growing that Nikki Haley’s coalition is almost certainly not large enough to deny Donald Trump the GOP presidential nomination. But evidence is also accumulating that her coalition is more than large enough to deny Trump the White House in a general election if her voters remain as alienated from him as they now say they are.

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The support for Haley in the early GOP contests has mapped, probably more precisely than ever before, the segments of the Republican electorate most deeply disaffected with Trump. In a possible rematch with Trump this fall, President Joe Biden will likely need to attract crossover support from a significant share of those ordinarily Republican-leaning voters to overcome the towering discontent evident in polls about his own performance.



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